Article presented to IV International Symposium on Non-Verbal Behavior – 7/12/23 – 2:30 pm

Dr. Sergio Fernandes Senna Pires

Chamber of Deputies – Legislative Consultancy

[email protected]

Lattes: https://lattes.cnpq.br/1997027402860999

Download PDF: Exp exploring the dynamics of complexity: an analysis of the interconnections between emotions, non-verbal communication and behavior prediction

Summary: In this article, we address the complexity of human systems from the perspective of Edgar Morin’s Complexity Theory. The main objective is to analyze the interrelationship between complexity, emotions and predictability of behavior. We highlight the importance of the integral and transdisciplinary approach proposed by Morin to understand adaptive systems, exploring the recursive role of emotions on themselves and on other intrapsychological processes, which introduces limitations to the predictability of human actions. We highlight the relevance of non-verbal communication in the study of emotional expression, linking the functioning of the Autonomic Nervous System to non-verbal indicators of human decisions. We highlight the challenges in predicting human behavior in complex scenarios, emphasizing the difficulty of establishing objective causal relationships due to multifinality, equifinality and the interconnection of relationships. Based on the principles of Complexity Theory and General Open Systems Theory, we suggest that behavioral systems have the ability to adjust, reconfigure and evolve in the face of changes, making the prediction of future behaviors a formidable task in complex scenarios. Uncertainty is recognized as an integral part of the predictability of human behavior, challenging deterministic approaches and encouraging the search for more integral and adaptable methods. We conclude that, despite advances, important questions remain open, such as the individual variability of emotional responses, the influence of cultural variables and the exploration of the temporal dynamics of emotions. Understanding these elements contributes to a more improved analysis of behavioral patterns, highlighting the importance of strategies that recognize the inherent complexity of human behavior.

 

About the author

Sergio Fernandes Senna Pires has been a public servant for 42 years and a Legislative Consultant to the Chamber of Deputies since 2003. He received a PhD in Psychology from the University of Brasília, where he was a contributing researcher. He is a member of the International Parliament Engagement Network and the Brazilian Association of School and Educational Psychology. Researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Emotional Language, he carries out studies on confronting violence; the promotion of peace; child and youth protagonism; and the regulation of human behavior by beliefs, values and emotions. A psychologist, he has a bachelor’s degree, master’s degree and postgraduate degrees in the area of National Defense and several postgraduate degrees in Psychology and Education.

 

EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF COMPLEXITY: AN ANALYSIS OF THE INTERCONNECTIONS BETWEEN EMOTIONS, NON-VERBAL COMMUNICATION AND THE BEHAVIOR PREDICTION

 

1. Introduction: highlighting intricate connections

In the fabric of human existence, as a collective, one constant stands out: complexity. This phenomenon, intensely present in the systems of living beings, becomes the object of analysis through the Complexity Theory proposed by Edgar Morin. By spreading the idea that understanding complexity requires an integral and transdisciplinary vision, Morin challenges us to transcend the principles of certain approaches and explore the inseparable connections between the different participants in a system.

In this context, our argument aims to present the complexity of human systems, highlighting a triad of interrelated elements: complexity, emotions and predictability of behavior. As we enter this multifaceted universe, we seek to point out how Complexity Theory can help in understanding the adaptive systems of which we are part, in particular, exploring the role of emotions and the limitations to the predictability of our actions.

In the study of emotions, non-verbal communication, as a form of expression and the methodologies for its study, have been fundamental in providing intelligibility regarding hidden parts of emotional phenomena (PIRES, 2023e). The close relationship between the functioning of the Autonomic Nervous System and non-verbal expressions has been studied for some time and provides us with clues about rinformation about emotional influences on human decisions. Therefore, it is impossible not to consider the extreme relevance of non-verbal communication for the advancement of scientific studies on emotions, in complex scenarios.

Throughout this journey, we will examine the influence of emotions as elements of our decisions. At the same time, we face the challenges inherent in predicting human behavior in complex scenarios, indicating the frontiers of certainty in a dynamic world. In the end, we highlight the challenges and future research directions that are outlined in this field.

2. What is behavior prediction for?

The prediction of human behavior emerges as a necessity in different contexts. There are several reasons why anticipating human behavior is useful, highlighting the ability to predict actions, reactions and choices and to understand the decision-making process. In this context, the observation of non-verbal behavior plays a crucial role, providing an additional layer of information for understanding the first emotions experienced by people and their possible influences on immediately future decisions.

The construction of scenarios based on predictive indicators can offer insights into the construction of human social and political organization, education and personal development. So, some of its uses are: (1) strategic decision making; (2) risk management; (3) improved communication; (4) personalization of experiences; (5) expanding understanding of the social context (BOSNJAK; AJZEN; SCHMIDT, 2020); and (6) the development of strategies to promote civic coexistence (PIRES, 2023a).

Anticipating human behavior allows the formulation of more effective strategies in various fields, such as business, politics and interpersonal relationships. Understanding how people are likely to react in certain situations gives you a strategic advantage when planning actions and decisions.

In addition, behavior prediction is fundamental in risk management, helping to identify possible challenges and avoid unwanted consequences. This is especially relevant in sectors such as finance, public security and health, where the ability to anticipate behaviors can mitigate threats and minimize damage (AIRES, 2022).

Improved communication generally influences the understanding of the nuances of human behavior, including body language and facial expressions, which recursively reflects on emotional processes and on the communicative processes themselves. By anticipating people’s reactions, you can adjust your message to ensure clearer understanding and lessen the likelihood of misunderstandings, which lessens the likelihood of aggressive responses.

Furthermore, in sectors such as marketing and product design, the ability to predict consumer preferences and reactions is crucial. This allows for the personalization of experiences, products and services, increasing customer satisfaction.

In general and with countless applications, understanding the social context also allows us to identify the significant elements of the relationships that influence behavior. In this sense, anticipating behavior in social contexts contributes to a deeper understanding of group dynamics. This is particularly useful in work environments, social events, and other situations where social interaction plays a significant role.

It is, therefore, the close relationship between non-verbal behavior and emotional states that opens the door to understanding the emotional influences on the perception and apprehension of the subjects’ first emotional responses to the events that occurred. Nonverbal cues often reveal emotional states, intentions, and comfort levels that may not be expressed verbally. Integrating this observation provides a more precise understanding, enriching the ability to anticipate human behavior in a more comprehensive way, which we will see below.

3. Complex thinking: an integrated vision for understanding reality

In the 1970s, French sociologist and philosopher Edgar Morin proposed a revolutionary approach to understanding complex systems (MORIN, 2005, 2015). Its key concepts lay the foundations for an integrated view of reality, challenging fragmentation in theoretical-practical approaches. Complexity Theory therefore questions the belief that complex scenarios can be understood by being transformed into simpler parts, analyzed separately and synthesized at the end.

A central concept in Morin’s work is Complex Thinking, which consists of a systemic stance towards the complexity of the world. This approach transcends disciplinary boundaries by valuing the understanding of interconnectionsand interdependencies as central elements. Unlike simplifying thinking, which fragments reality, Complex Thinking guides us towards understanding the totality, considering the dynamic and inseparable relationships between elements. This is not just a methodology, but a way of thinking and a new attitude towards the construction of knowledge.

In this context, Morin, like other thinkers who preceded him, proposes a change in epistemological paradigm, stimulating creativity when analyzing systems as an integrated whole, recognizing the overlap between apparently distinct elements. By adopting this stance, we are guided to understand the crucial interconnections and try to overcome the fragmentation promoted by languages and categorizations, as ways of communicating and understanding phenomena (MORIN, 2015).

It is necessary to clarify that the search for a comprehensive approach does not imply the impossibility of dividing issues into parts, as language, as an organizer and expression of thought (VYGOTSKY, 1989), is categorical. We use specific words and terms to represent distinct concepts, creating a linguistic structure that reflects the categorical fragmentation of thought. Thus, understanding the world and communicating depend on the ability to categorize, segment and operate semiotically.

By recognizing the categorical nature of thought and language, we affirm the need to carry out detailed and specific analyzes in certain aspects. However, we emphasize the importance of not isolating parts from their broader contexts, recognizing the recursiveness of interactions in systems (MORIN, 2015). Truly comprehensive understanding emerges from the conscious and contextualized integration of the different parts. This understanding is known as inclusive separation (PIRES, 2023b).

Allegorically, we can understand the inseparable relationships between individuals and the social from the Gestalt concept of figure and background (MACHADO, 2019). This principle suggests that the nervous system organizes stimuli into two distinct parts: the figure, which is the main part or central object of attention, and the background, which represents the context or surrounding area. The figure is what stands out and attracts our immediate attention, while the background is the part that, despite not being the main one, decisively influences the interpretation of the figure.

Considering the individual and the social, in this dyad, implies highlighting the importance of the relationship between elements and how attention should alternate between these poles, contributing to a comprehensive and inseparable understanding of the cultural ecosystem. This purpose is achieved when seeking to integrate these parts, avoiding the omission of relevant elements and recognizing their inseparable interrelationships. Instead of isolating variables, we seek to understand how they are interconnected and how they contribute, recursively, to the totality of the phenomenon under analysis.

This way of building our understanding of the world considers how collective culture exercises a central guiding power over individuals without us being nullified by it (PIRES, 2023b). Let’s look at a well-known example. As a collective cultural element, let us consider sexual orientation throughout history. In many eras, the diversity of sexual orientations that deviate from the social norm were systematically punished. However, resistance on the part of individuals never ceased to exist. Despite social repressions, individual autonomy allowed many to reject imposed cultural norms and follow their own identities and desires (FERREIRA, 2020).

In the context of gender roles, cultural expectations often dictate how people should behave. However, each person is capable of building their individual and autonomous understanding of these roles, at which time emotions play a fundamental role, motivating individuals to challenge, conform to or reconstruct cultural orientations. Autonomy, in this case, manifests itself in the ability to question and redefine these standards according to personal experiences and convictions.

This dynamic, on an individual level, exemplifies the unpredictability that exists in the cultural system. Although collective culture exerts a significant influence, individual autonomy allows variations and resistance to established norms (PIRES, 2023c). History shows that, even in the face of severe social punishments, individuals have challenged cultural orientations, promoting changes over time and contributing to cultural evolution. This capacity for autonomous reconstruction highlights the complexity of the human cultural and symbolic system, which can guide but not predict all individual decisions and paths.

In this direction, there are several theoretical approaches in Psychology, which originate from these and other equally relevant assumptions.integrative. They make use of transdisciplinarity, see themselves as incomplete and in permanent evolution. These references are able to offer intelligibility and theoretical frameworks for understanding complex phenomena and evolve towards developing research instruments appropriate to this reality (WATZLAWIK; SALDEN, 2022). Generally, they are known as belonging to a family of historical-cultural approaches, among which Cultural Psychology stands out (PIRES, 2023b).

4. Are all environments complex scenarios?

Obviously, not all scenarios are complex or require complex approaches to their study. However, in terms of human phenomena, we live in an intricate cultural ecosystem (PIRES, 2023b). Understanding this scenario is more than an advantage; it is a necessity in the current technological context, governed by digital speed (ROSA, 2020) and in constant transformation.

The complexity of human behavior is, therefore, comparable to the systems of forces of nature that we do not control, but can understand, coexist, carry out some interventions and, to some extent, predict and take advantage of them. Just as a meteorologist observes dynamic weather patterns to predict storms, we can observe patterns in human interactions and cultural ecosystems. Just as we do not control storms or electrical discharges, in complex scenarios, observing human behavior should not be a step in trying to control, but rather understanding, reorienting and adapting to realities (PIRES; BRANCO, 2023).< /p>

Thus, when we apply the principles of Complexity Theory to understanding human behavior, we conclude that there is no single approach that fits all scenarios (MORIN, 2015). There are, in fact, different types of scenarios: from simple and well-known ones, through complicated ones that require detailed analysis, to complex ones, in which the interconnection of variables makes prediction challenging. There are also chaotic scenarios, in which causal relationships are so volatile that prediction is practically impossible (DOS SANTOS, 2023).

Despite the previously mentioned limitations, Complexity Theory provides a valuable approach to establishing the distinctions between these scenarios. In simple situations, we can apply known and established rules. In complicated scenarios, in-depth analysis is necessary, but solutions are still discernible. However, in complex scenarios, uncertainty and fluid dynamics require more flexible and adaptive approaches (VAN DER MERWE et al., 2019; SNOWDEN, 2021).

Our central argument, then, is based on the idea that it is necessary to recognize that not all scenarios are complex and do not require Complex Thinking for their understanding. Some issues can be treated with traditional methods, while others require a deeper approach to interconnected dynamics, as is the case with violence or the use of psychoactive substances, for example. In this direction, instead of trying to impose a single approach to all cases, Complexity Theory encourages us to observe, adapt and respond according to the unique characteristics of each scenario (MORIN, 2015).

5. Key concepts of Edgar Morin’s Complexity Theory

In the search for a deeper understanding of complex systems, the Uncertainty Principle, as proposed by Morin (2015), challenges the traditional conception that complete and absolute knowledge is achievable. This principle suggests that the search for absolute certainties often results in superficial understandings. In complex systems, the interdependence of variables, the multiplicity of influences, recursion and unpredictability are inseparable elements and must be considered sources of new relationships over time.

It is important to highlight that there are contradictions that create the very tensions that are at the root of introducing uncertainties into behavior. We mention, for example, the strong environmental and symbolic structuring revealed by the Theories of Symbolic Violence and Reproduction (BOURDIEU, 1989; ALTHUSSER, 2007; PIRES, 2023b). To elucidate this thesis, it is enough to observe that strong structuring establishes the strength necessary for the development of resistance, which can be apparently manifested as conformation until the moment that the subjects perceive the opportunity for divergence, and begin to attempt cultural transformation, as predicted. in Resistance Theories (GIROUX, 1983, 2001; PIRES, 2023d).

From the theoretical context of our interest, the Principle of Interdisciplinarity represents an approach that transcends conventional disciplinary boundaries. This interdisciplinarity goes beyond the coexistence of different fields of study; it seeks genuine integration, recognizing the nThe need for a comprehensive understanding to address the complexity inherent in certain systems, whether natural or social. Modernly, this same idea was called transdisciplinarity (ZWIEREWICZ, 2020), a nomenclature that we will use from this point onwards.

An integrative approach not only broadens the view of complex problems, but also challenges the rigidity in fragmentation and determination of boundaries between academic disciplines, opening space for a synthesis that respects the diversity of methods and perspectives. By indicating transdisciplinarity, Morin proposes a path to break with the compartmentalization of knowledge, creating a synergy that enhances the understanding of complex systems and their dynamic interaction.

Another aspect of extreme relevance comes from the relationship between complexity and adaptive systems, from which we highlight its significant connection with the General Theory of Open Systems (TGSA), conceived by Ludwig von Bertalanffy. This theory offers a robust theoretical framework for understanding the interconnection and adaptability of systems (DE ARAUJO, 2020). TGSA proposes that systems, whether biological, social or organizational, are open and that they exchange energy, matter and information with everything around them. By articulating this theory with complexity, we suggest that adaptive systems are, by definition, complex, as they are constantly interacting and adapting to changes that occur in a continuous cycle.

In this direction, TGSA introduced the concepts of multifinality and equifinality, to emphasize the complex and adaptive nature of open systems. Multifinality refers to the ability of a system to reach different final states, even starting from a similar initial condition. In turn, equifinality suggests that different initial conditions can lead to similar final results.

By applying these principles to the complexity of human behavior, we can observe how life experiences, environmental influences and individual characteristics promote a variety of trajectories that individuals can follow (PIRES, 2023a). For example, when two people face similar challenges, they may develop completely different coping strategies due to multifinality. Likewise, individuals with different life histories can manifest similar behaviors, demonstrating equifinality.

These TGSA concepts illustrate how the complexity of human behavior cannot be simplified into a single formula, as it is influenced by an intricate interconnection of variables that, above all, act recursively on themselves. Understanding the possible effects of multifinality and equifinality provides a more comprehensive approach, recognizing that human adaptation is multifaceted, diverse and associated with diverse influences. This epistemological stance is essential to explore the complexity of human behavior within the broader context of adaptive systems, contributing to highlighting the interrelationship between TGSA and Morin’s Complexity Theory.

6. Beyond the conventional: principles of complexity, in practice

There are three guiding principles of Complexity Theory that interest us directly in understanding emotions as a relational element that introduces complexity into decisions and behavior: (1) the drastic reduction in the ability to predict behavior in complex environments; (2) the lack of a single correct way to act; and (3) the inability to go back or forward in time in complex systems (MORIN, 2015).

With regard to the reduced ability to predict behavior, in complex environments, we can argue that, in human behavior, outcomes cannot be predicted due to the dynamics of interconnection of psychological and social processes. Each aspect influences and is influenced by the others, generating constant co-constriction. This co-evolution results in behaviors that are constantly changing, without necessarily predictable repetition (DE AZEVEDO ALMEIDA; GOMES, 2019). However, as previously explained, not all scenarios are complex, which maintains reasonable predictive capacity in some of them.

Let’s imagine, for example, a presidential election in Brazil. In a complex political environment, unforeseen events, such as an unsuccessful knife attack, can influence the change in the electorate’s opinion and the way in which social dynamics interact in a unique way, increasing the chances of a previously insignificant candidate emerging victorious. in the election. Unpredictability arises because it is not possible to anticipate, with reasonable certainty, how these unforeseen and specific factors will decisively influence the outcome of the election.

Regarding the lack of a single correct way to actr, in complex environments, opting for a single hypothesis of action limits the evolutionary potential inherent to the various alternative approaches. A multi-hypothesis approach leads to emerging practices and breakthrough innovations.

From this point of view, more important than controlling the variables and trying to present specific coping strategies for each modality or type of violence, for example, is focusing on the subjects’ adaptive, creative, recursive and developmental capacity. This means offering activities that mobilize emotions and, consequently, (re)orient organizations towards meaning and changing decisions and behaviors.

Let us also consider a legal case in Brazil. Rather than adopting a single legal strategy, recognizing the lack of a one-size-fits-all approach allows lawyers to explore different methods, such as mediation or negotiation, to reach adaptable and innovative solutions for their clients.

Regarding the inability to go back or forward in time, once patterns have formed, it is necessary to work from that point. This is the case, for example, of the removal of populations historically established in a given territory. There is no way to go back in time to resolve territorial problems. Such removal will cause new problems for the populations to be moved.

Let us think, for example, of Brazil’s economic policies over the last 40 years. Once they have been implemented and economic standards have been established, it is not possible to go back in time to reformulate past decisions. The most appropriate approach is to move forward from the present, considering the current economic challenges to be faced.

These guiding principles therefore offer a conceptual basis for addressing the complexity of human behavior, providing valuable insights for professionals who need to operate in dynamic and unpredictable environments. By understanding these principles, we can adopt more adaptable and innovative solutions in our practices, recognizing the intricate and constantly evolving nature of complex systems.

7. Emotions in the network of recursive influences

One of the greatest challenges facing us is understanding the network of relationships, influences and recursive actions that human emotions establish with other biopsychological processes. In this context, understanding emotions is a challenging and intricate terrain and is generally characterized by uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge.

Existing theories about emotions, although they provide valuable perspectives, still do not allow understanding their completeness and the range of relationships they establish with other psychological processes.

From this point of view, we cannot fail to consider that the elaboration of theories about emotions, based on emotional responses, are based on our methodological (in)ability to access the hidden part of the emotional phenomenon. However, the relationships between emotions, decisions and other psychological processes do not cease to exist, and to make a difference or matter, because we do not have access to them through current scientific methods.

When exploring the main emotional responses presented by Barrett and Westlin (2021): (1) physiological activation; (2) subjective experience; and (3) behavioral tendency, we can draw relationships between them and the fundamental principles of complexity theory, previously presented.

Physiological activation, for example, highlights the changes in our physiology associated with emotions. In this sense, the interconnection of physiological variables and the multiplicity of influences that contribute to these changes reflect the complex nature of emotional processes. Furthermore, physiological activation creates a feedback loop of positive or negative sensations that people can interpret in multiple ways. From a cultural point of view, the regulatory power of physiological sensations over the processes of meaning should not be diminished, despite the resistance that a given individual may develop to physiological appeals to increase or decrease the probability of the occurrence of behaviors. It is not uncommon to observe the predominance of basic biopsychological processes over those known as superior (PIRES, 2023b).

Subjective experience, in turn, illustrates the individual interpretation of emotions, adding another layer of complexity. The ability to attribute meaning and reframe emotions over time highlights the adaptive dynamics inherent to complex systems and their irreversibility in the timeline. Thus, the very understanding of a complex phenomenon is a constantly evolving process, directed towards the future, within which the subjective experiences of emotions can also evolve, guided by new perceptions. Furthermore, theseredefined emotional experiences promote other influences when participating in new cycles of the decision-making process.

Following this process, behavioral expression and action tendency, by linking emotions to motor behavior and motivation, align with the idea that complex systems, including human interactions, are guided by multiple factors. In dynamic and unstructured environments, the variety of behavioral responses can be vast, as the same emotion can result in different actions, based on contextual and individual influences.

An example is the interaction between fear and courage in risky decisions. In a challenging context, fear can alert to possible threats, while courage can motivate the subject to search for opportunities for action. This interaction highlights how emotions, including contradictory ones, guide the assessment of risks and benefits, guiding decisions in unique ways.

In addition, we must pay close attention to the recursive action of emotions on themselves and on other intrapsychological processes. The recursiveness of emotions is evidenced when an individual’s emotional experience, when interacting with their environment, not only influences their subjective perception, but also becomes an active component in the production of new, often more intense, emotions.</p >

For example, imagine a person experiencing anxiety in a challenging social environment. This initial emotional state can be perceived as an emotional figure that stands out in the context. As the individual synthesizes this anxiety with perception of the environment and real and imagined social interactions, it becomes a background for the subsequent interpretation of events. If the person, during this process, interprets the reaction of others as negative or threatening, the initial anxiety can intensify, becoming a source for the production of a new, more intense emotion, such as fear, for example.</p >

In this recursive cycle, the perception of one’s own anxiety influences the interpretation of events, contributing to the elicitation of new, more intense emotions. This phenomenon highlights the complex transversal dynamics of emotions, whereby the constant interaction between perception and new emotions creates a recursive cycle that guides future cognitive experience in an evolutionary and often unpredictable way.

It is for these scenarios that Complexity Theory offers a valuable conceptual framework for understanding the influences that emotions exert on what we can observe about human behavior. The reasonable unpredictability of emotional responses, when interpreted in light of their guiding principles, highlights the need to use adaptive approaches and recognize the diversity of influences that guide our emotional experiences, as exemplified above.

So, the development of new study methods and research instruments is fundamental for the progress of research and access to aspects of the emotional phenomenon that were previously insensitive to our methodological arsenal (WATZLAWIK; SALDEN, 2022). Thus, emotions, with their hidden intrapsychological elements, present themselves as fertile ground for exploring the limits of understanding in a complex and dynamic context.

As previously explained, in less structured environments, the unpredictability of human behavior reveals itself as a constant challenge and an inherent characteristic of the complexity of human interactions. In these cases, the dynamic interconnection of variables and multiplicity of influences contribute to the fluid and ever-evolving nature of human choices.

Unpredictability, in this context, is fueled by the diversity of emotional responses, subjective experiences and action tendencies. Physiological activation, by modulating the perception and interpretation of information, influences decisions in a mutual and, often, unforeseen way. Subjective experience, with its ability to reframe emotions over time, adds layers of complexity to the interpretation of events in unstructured environments, producing changes in meaning over time.

To illustrate how emotions decisively influence the predictability of behavior, we can examine an example from the work environment. Let’s imagine a scenario in which a leader expresses empathy and recognition, through communication and inference from his decisions, in the face of a challenge faced by the team. This emotional expression can result in greater cohesion, collaboration, and engagement, but each member’s response can vary widely due to the diversity of individual emotional interpretations. Some team members may be motivated by empathy, while others may respond in a more reserved and less supportive manner, influencing thegroup dynamics. In turn, the leader also interprets these reactions, which can lead him to reorient his decisions for the next time he has to motivate his team. This example illustrates the recursive and mutual characteristic of the relationships and perceptions we have based on the inferences we make, in the context of emotions.

The inferences, mentioned in the example, are very significant for predicting behavior. Although it is not our purpose to specifically address the inferential process, it is necessary to point to the intrapsychological aspect that Aaron Beck called the cognitive triad (TORO-TOBAR; GRAJALES-GIRALDO; SARMIENTO-LÓPEZ, 2016). This formulation describes how depressed adults tend to think about themselves, the world and the future, through negative opinions. Beck, from this observation, identified maladaptive thought patterns that precede verbally expressed feelings, which is important for our reflection, and called them cognitive errors, including: (1) arbitrary inference (quick conclusions based on limited evidence) , (2) selective abstraction (focus on some evidence to draw conclusions) and (3) excessive generalization (attribution of negative meaning to an event that permeates all similar events), among others.

So, we can note that this (mal)adaptive influence of the ability to infer becomes fundamental for understanding the individual decision-making process and how emotions can completely distort perception and other higher processes. These aspects are described by Beck and Deffenbacher (2000), in great detail, in the book entitled “Prisoners of hate: the cognitive basis of anger, hostility, and violence”.

Since these inferences, as we show in our example, refer to the reactions of team members, the reciprocal nature of the individual-social cultural construct (PIRES, 2023b) is therefore a good starting point for understanding the role of emotions in this inferential process and the possible effects of its errors. In this context, Beck’s contributions revolutionized the understanding of microgenesis in the formation of beliefs and its generalizing effects, highlighting the influence of thought on actions, conceived as intentional behavior.

Therefore, the unpredictability of behavior, in less structured environments, highlights the need to develop adaptive and flexible approaches to understanding and anticipating human actions. Recognizing the intricate web of emotional and cognitive influences, in constant interaction, provides valuable insights to deal with the uncertainty inherent to these contexts, promoting a more integral and dynamic understanding of human choices. Ultimately, unpredictability is an invitation to appreciate the richness and complexity inherent to the human condition, which requires patience and perseverance in creating methods.

However, we highlight that this view is not predominant in the scientific context, but the instrumental use of behavioral observation, with emphasis on non-verbal behavior, has been systematized and automated in an attempt to carry out screenings, selections and predictions, in scenarios that require risk analysis. So, based on the arguments we have presented, it is possible that the failure of the North American program known as SPOT (Passenger Screening by Observation Techniques) occurred due to the rigidity of the rules introduced into digital cyber systems that performed automated pre-analysis. of non-verbal behavior (DENAULT et al., 2018). Furthermore, the evaluations carried out show the large number of false positives produced by the system (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2011), another indicator of our hypothesis about the possible rigidity of the secret operating rules of the aforementioned system.

8. Final Words

Predicting complex behaviors is a formidable task due to the multiplicity of variables and interactions involved. Complexity Theory, by recognizing human behavior as an expression of the inseparable relationship between the individual and the social, highlights several challenges inherent to this prediction. Multifinality, equifinality and interconnection of factors make it difficult to establish objective and clear causal relationships, which contraindicates the use of direct approaches in anticipating specific behaviors. Furthermore, the dynamics and adaptability of complex systems imply that subtle changes in variables can trigger significantly different results, increasing the difficulties for more accurate prediction.

In this direction, Complexity Theory suggests that systems, including behavioral systems, have the capacity to adjust and evolve in response to changes in environmental and psychological conditions. This implies that predicting future behaviormust take into account not only the current state of the system, but also its ability to adapt to changing scenarios. For example, in stressful situations, the adaptability of human behavior can result in unexpected responses, defying predictions based on past conditions, such as the countless demonstrations of empathy and generosity that occurred in Nazi concentration camps, despite the context of extreme violence (FRANKL, 2013).

The role of uncertainty in the predictability of behavior highlights that, even with advances in statistical methods and predictive models, there are limits to the accuracy of these predictions. This then challenges deterministic approaches, encouraging a more realistic appreciation of the inherent complexity of social issues.

Accepting uncertainty as an integral part of the predictability of human behavior implies recognizing the limitations of simplified approaches and promoting the relevance of the search for new, more integral and adaptable approaches in the analysis of behavioral patterns. It is recognizing that systems are hybrids, in which some aspects are shown through relatively stable patterns that are sensitive to research instruments, while other elements are extremely dynamic and respond through different speeds and patterns of change. Understanding these dynamics not only enhances predictive approaches, but also emphasizes the importance of strategies that recognize the inherent complexity of human behavior.

Despite significant advances in the understanding of emotions and the predictability of behavior, several questions remain open, outlining fertile ground for future research. A central question is how individual variability in emotional responses is reflected in distinct behavioral patterns, considering the complex interaction of factors.

Furthermore, the influence of cultural variables on the manifestation and interpretation of emotions is an area that requires further investigation. This guidance is fundamental when it comes to discerning how people make their choices about how to proceed to achieve their goals. Much of the decision to use low and medium intensity violent methods is related to this distinction, as people subject to the same collective culture and its suggestions behave in very different ways. How, then, from the same cultural orientations, do different emotional expressions show themselves in different behaviors?

Another intriguing area of research is exploring the temporal dynamics of emotions and how they impact the predictability of behavior. How do emotions evolve and interact, recursively, in response to events in the cultural ecosystem, and how does this evolution unfold over time and influence future decisions?

As we explore the intersection of complexity, emotions, and predictability of behavior, significant insights emerge that broaden our understanding of the intricate dynamics that permeate the human experience. We began our journey by presenting the foundations of Edgar Morin’s Complexity Theory, highlighting principles such as multifinality, equifinality and interdisciplinarity. Delving into the complexity of human behavior, we explore the influence of emotions as complex elements, highlighting how their dynamics guide individual responses, decisions and behavioral patterns.

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